Saturday 5 October 2013

Have Americans become more classically liberal since the early 2000s?

To quote wikipedia, classical liberalism "advocates civil liberties, with a limited government under the rule of law, private property, and a belief in laissez-faire economic policy." Earlier this year, The Economist ran an article pointing to evidence that young people in Britain have become more classically liberal over the last few decades. In this post, I gauge the extent to which Americans' political beliefs have shifted in the direction of classical liberalism since the early 2000s. All data are from Gallup.

The first chart indicates that the proportion of Americans who consider themselves independents has increased by 5-10 percentage-points since 2001.


Charts two and three relate to the overall scope of government. The second chart indicates that the proportion who think the federal government has too much power has increased by 5-10 percentage-points, while the proportion who think it does not has decreased by 5-10 percentage-points. The third chart indicates that the proportion who think the government is doing too much has increased by 1-5 percentage-points, while the proportion who think it is doing too little has decreased by 1-5 percentage-points.



Charts four, five, six and seven relate to economic and fiscal issues. The fourth chart indicates that the proportion who think there is too much government regulation has increased by about 5 percentage-points, while the proportion who think there is too little government regulation has decreased by 1-5 percentage-points. The fifth chart indicates that the proportion who disapprove of labour unions has increased by about 5 percentage-points, while the proportion who approve of them has decreased by about 5 percentage-points; both of these changes happened quite abruptly in 2008 when Obama took office. The sixth chart indicates that the proportion who think the government is spending too much on national defence has increased by about 15 percentage-points, while the proportion who think it is spending too little on national defence has decreased by about 15 percentage-points. The seventh chart indicates that the proportion who think the federal income tax is too high has not changed since 2002 when the Bush tax cuts came in; the proportion who think it is about right has not changed either.





Finally, charts eight, nine and ten relate to social issues. The Eighth chart indicates that the proportion who think immigration should be increased has risen by about 5 percentage-points, while the proportion who say it should be decreased has declined by 5-10 percentage-points. The ninth chart indicates that the proportion who think the government should promote traditional values has decreased by 5-10 percentage-points, while the proportion who think it should not promote them has increased by about 5 percentage-points. The tenth chart indicates that the proportion who think homosexual relations should be legal has increased by 10-15 percentage-points, while the proportion who think they should be illegal has decreased by10-15 percentage-points.




Overall, these charts provide strong evidence that Americans have become more classically liberal since the early 2000s. Americans are now more likely to: consider themselves independents, think the government has too much power, think the government is doing too much, think there is too much regulation, disapprove of labour unions, think the government is spending too much on defence, favour increased immigration, and think homosexual relations should be legal. And they are less likely to think the government should promote traditional values. However, they are no more likely to think the federal income tax is too high.

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