Monday, 7 November 2016

What would the electoral college have looked like in 2012 if illegal immigrants could vote?

According to Pew Research, the states with the largest illegal immigrant populations are as follows:

Of these states, Romney won Texas, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina in the 2012 election––garnering him 103 electoral college votes. Would he have still won them if illegal immigrants could vote? 

Most illegal immigrants are Hispanics. 71% of Hispanics voted for Obama in 2012, while 27% voted for Romney. The Hispanic turnout rate was 48%. Therefore, the results in Texas, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina would have been as follows if illegal immigrants could vote:

Romney would probably still have won all four of these states. However, his margins of victory would have been quite substantially reduced.