Sunday 26 June 2016

Did more old people than young people vote Remain?

According to a YouGov poll on the day of the referendum, 75% of people in the 18-24 age group voted for Remain, compared to 39% in the 65+ age group. I was able to locate two different sources of estimated turnout by age group: a Sky Data poll, and an analysis of data from a Lord Ashcroft poll by Future Canon

According to the Sky Data poll, turnout in the 18-24 age group was 36%, whereas turnout in the 65+ age group was 83%. This implies that 0.75*0.36 = 27% of young people voted Remain, and that 0.39*0.83 = 32% of old people voted Remain. 

According to the analysis by Future Canon, turnout in the 18-24 age group was 32%, whereas turnout in the 65+ age group was 78%. This implies that 0.75*0.32 = 24% of young people voted Remain, and that 0.39*0.78 = 30% of old people voted Remain. 

Having said that, these turnout figures do seem a little implausible. Is it really true that only 32-36% of young people voted? If one instead relies on Ipsos MORI's figures for the last general election, then turnout in the 18-24 age group was 43%, while turnout in the 65+ age group was 78%. This implies that 0.75*0.43 = 32% of young people voted Remain, and that 0.39*0.78 = 30% of old people voted Remain.

Overall, it is not implausible that the proportion of old people who voted Remain is similar to (or even greater than) the proportion of young people who voted Remain. Of course, many more old people than young people voted Leave.

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